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Friday, August 26, 2005

GCC Currency, Myth or Reality?

I've always wanted to talk about this issue.. and I keep bringing it up whenever I get the chance to. I was talking to my cousin today about the economy and what's going to happen in the following years in the region, and I was amazed that I did not elaborate on the GCC common currency which is due in 2010..

Now since all GCC countries are committed to issue it, and most people think that it is going to be the 2nd most important currency union in the world.. but that is too optimistic for all of us here in the GCC.

I've always thought that the currency would not be pegged to the dollar, which might strengthen or weaken it depends on how you look at it, but I was shocked when I heard that the currency is going to be pegged to the dollar? So the main reason of forming this currency is for inter-region trade?!

Well, so sad.. but looking at it from the other point of view.. the region is not yet stable enough to hold one currency, looking at the differences in the economic policies of the countries.. one should think that the best way is if we had full economic coordination between the countries.. but isn't that far fetched? they're working on it, yeah, but will they ever reach a mutual ground? if the fact that one country proposed to be the host of the GCC Central bank before they reach that point in discussion made alot of countries furious to what might this lead to, everyone is racing for a piece of the pie.. but really, should we be thinking like this? if we are working on a unified region, a one body, why would someone try to skip some steps and propose something that they know that the others might be more rightful to?

Seriously, if they were to create this currency, someone should propose that it should not be pegged to any currency making it float.. you're right if you think that the region is not stable enough and full economic integration will still need alot of work and time, but what's the economical benefit of forming such a currency if the region that controls 45% of the world's known oil reserves won't have power on it's own policies? and ofcourse that will all flaunt when the dollar shows negative performance therefore reflecting on the GCC currency which WOULD NOT and I repeat WOULD NOT be affected by such thing if it wasn't pegged to the dollar in the first place but rather let the market determine the value of the currency by letting it float.

Prices of oil are soaring, reaching over $68 dollars today.. and is expected to reach over $100 in 2010 by the time the currency is in circulation based on some speculations, but what benefit would it give to the region? just renaming the dollar to GCC Currency? that's it? more trade between GCC countries....? is that all we're looking for? what benefit would it make? All GCC currencies are now pegged to the dollar after Kuwait pegged it's currency to the dollar recently which I see as a sacrifice made by the Central Bank of Kuwait to benefit the Whole GCC.

So a unified currency pegged to the dollar will only benefit the intra-trade between memeber countries, and it won't change much with the world outside! and the fact that it's going to be the 2nd most important currency union is not true? unlike the Euro which is not pegged to the dollar which I admit they have alot of problems to solve which proved that it wasn't the right time for implementation.. but why would it be the right time to implement a GCC currency!?

I have a great sense of patriotism to the whole GCC.. I was born the year the GCC was formed and I lived all my life loving everything about it.. but it's about time they do something... so do it right! please.
posted by @ 8/26/2005 03:06:00 AM Google It!


Comments on "GCC Currency, Myth or Reality?"

 

Blogger YAB said ... (27 August, 2005 02:06) : 

After she had posted her comment, we met on MSN messenger and we had this conversation. I hope you enjoy it :)



SNP says:
read my comment..
SNP says:
i say the exact same thing
Genesis says:
I read it
Genesis says:
but the euro was never pegged to another currency
Genesis says:
it has always been floating
SNP says:
yes. thts bcoz the DM and Fr Fr were strong currenciues on their own
SNP says:
fer the euro.. it was more a case of synchronizing the cycles
Genesis says:
exactly
SNP says:
reply on the blog...
Genesis says:
if they remove the peg to the dollar now.. the currencies can support themselves knowning that in the past couple of years most of the governments are generating surplusses..
Genesis says:
for the time being..
Genesis says:
I'll post this chat conversation as my comment LOL
SNP says:
what abt teh big divide in variables such as inflation
SNP says:
i think inf is way higher in countries like saudi n qatar
Genesis says:
that's what I was saying.. by economic coordination/integration
Genesis says:
do you think the inflation rate is the same in european countries?
SNP says:
obviously not!
Genesis says:
so..
SNP says:
but they have had experience in floating currencies n managing the float!
Genesis says:
the forces of the market determine that.
SNP says:
ideally...
SNP says:
but not really
Genesis says:
well.. ofcourse..
SNP says:
how many currencies are not a managed float..
SNP says:
of all the central banks in teh region, which has realll experience in managing the float of their own currency?
Genesis says:
none has a floating currency
SNP says:
EXACTLY!
SNP says:
so i believe tht there are 2 options
SNP says:
you either wait for the currencies to begin their individual floats...
Genesis says:
which is never
SNP says:
or.. u unify the currency, started by a dollar peg...
SNP says:
n gradually phase off
Genesis says:
or pegging to gold..
Genesis says:
and since all that is happening.. let's propose a peg to Oil prices LOL
SNP says:
oh cmon.. gold backed currencies dont happen nemore!
SNP says:
ur very funny
Genesis says:
lol
Genesis says:
bottom line...?
SNP says:
the electricity just went here!
SNP says:
LOL
Genesis says:
lol
Genesis says:
you better come back to dubai fast.. I miss you
SNP says:
neway
Genesis says:
anyway
SNP says:
i think tht initiallly a dollar peg is a good idea..
Genesis says:
but there is no such thing as Gradually unpeg it... you either peg or you don't peg!
SNP says:
but to gain coz of the oil price advantage we need to be an independent currency, cos the world will face cost push pressures.. esp the states.. n we don wanna be riding tht wave wen it hits us!
SNP says:
i think managing a float, and unifying (which is essentially a 2 pronged process is too hard)
SNP says:
phase 1- work on coordination
SNP says:
phase 2- work on managing the currency
SNP says:
and i miss you tooo!!!!
Genesis says:
LOL
Genesis says:
that's what I'm saying.. but I don't agree with pegging as a start!..
SNP says:
hmm....
SNP says:
ok.. so what do u suggest?
Genesis says:
floating.. day 1
SNP says:
i disagree
Genesis says:
why do you disagree?
SNP says:
i told u y i disagee.. i think its too much to handle all at once...
SNP says:
sure
Genesis says:
no it's not.. you're talking about 6 countries
SNP says:
ur also talking abt unchartered waters
Genesis says:
yes.. but you know if they need help they can get it..
Genesis says:
if it was to be fixed.. then it should be fixed-but-adjustable
Genesis says:
as in pegged to the dollar..
SNP says:
eh?
Genesis says:
well.. that's how kuwait is doing it now
Genesis says:
within a certain percentage
Genesis says:
??
SNP says:
explain tht to me
Genesis says:
hold on.. let me find you an article
Genesis says:
http://www.cbk.gov.kw/WWW/exchange_rates.html
Genesis says:
did you read it?
SNP says:
no
SNP says:
im brain dead
Genesis says:
it's called a conventional peg
Genesis says:
anyways.. we'll talk about this later.
SNP says:
sure

 

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