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Saturday, August 27, 2005

GCC Currency? bring it on.

This seems to be a very sensitive topic.. everyone is bombarding me with questions and ofcourse a fierce resistance from SNP, god bless her.. here is what happend and I hope you comment on it.

SNP says:
read my comment..

SNP says:
i say the exact same thing

Genesis says:
I read it

Genesis says:
but the euro was never pegged to another currency

Genesis says:
it has always been floating

SNP says:
yes. thts bcoz the DM and Fr Fr were strong currenciues on their own

SNP says:
fer the euro.. it was more a case of synchronizing the cycles

Genesis says:
exactly

Genesis says:
if they remove the peg to the dollar now.. the currencies can support themselves knowning that in the past couple of years most of the governments are generating surplusses..

Genesis says:
for the time being..

SNP says:
what abt teh big divide in variables such as inflation

SNP says:
i think inf is way higher in countries like saudi n qatar

Genesis says:
that's what I was saying.. by economic coordination/integration

Genesis says:
do you think the inflation rate is the same in european countries?

SNP says:
obviously not!

Genesis says:
so..

SNP says:
but they have had experience in floating currencies n managing the float!

Genesis says:
the forces of the market determine that.

SNP says:
ideally...

SNP says:
but not really

Genesis says:
well.. ofcourse..

SNP says:
how many currencies are not a managed float..

SNP says:
of all the central banks in teh region, which has realll experience in managing the float of their own currency?

Genesis says:
none has a floating currency

SNP says:
EXACTLY!

SNP says:
so i believe tht there are 2 options

SNP says:
you either wait for the currencies to begin their individual floats...

Genesis says:
which is never

SNP says:
or.. u unify the currency, started by a dollar peg...

SNP says:
n gradually phase off

Genesis says:
or pegging to gold..

Genesis says:
and since all that is happening.. let's propose a peg to Oil prices LOL

SNP says:
oh cmon.. gold backed currencies dont happen nemore!

SNP says:
ur very funny

Genesis says:
lol

Genesis says:
bottom line...?

SNP says:
i think tht initiallly a dollar peg is a good idea..

Genesis says:
but there is no such thing as Gradually unpeg it... you either peg or you don't peg!

SNP says:
but to gain coz of the oil price advantage we need to be an independent currency, cos the world will face cost push pressures.. esp the states.. n we don wanna be riding tht wave wen it hits us!

SNP says:
i think managing a float, and unifying (which is essentially a 2 pronged process is too hard)

SNP says:
phase 1- work on coordination

SNP says:
phase 2- work on managing the currency

Genesis says:
that's what I'm saying.. but I don't agree with pegging as a start!..

SNP says:
hmm....

SNP says:
ok.. so what do u suggest?

Genesis says:
floating.. day 1

SNP says:
i disagree

Genesis says:
why do you disagree?

SNP says:
i told u y i disagee.. i think its too much to handle all at once...

SNP says:
sure

Genesis says:
no it's not.. you're talking about 6 countries

SNP says:
ur also talking abt unchartered waters

Genesis says:
yes.. but you know if they need help they can get it..

Genesis says:
if it was to be fixed.. then it should be fixed-but-adjustable

Genesis says:
as in pegged to the dollar..

SNP says:
eh?

Genesis says:
well.. that's how kuwait is doing it now

Genesis says:
within a certain percentage

SNP says:
explain tht to me

Genesis says:
hold on.. let me find you an article

Genesis says:
http://www.cbk.gov.kw/WWW/exchange_rates.html

Genesis says:
it's called a conventional peg


Your Comments Please.
posted by @ 8/27/2005 02:33:00 AM Google It!


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